Batch-sequential design and heteroskedastic surrogate modeling for delta smelt conservation
نویسندگان
چکیده
Delta smelt is an endangered fish species in the San Francisco estuary that have shown overall population decline over past 30 years. Researchers developed a stochastic, agent-based simulator to virtualize system with goal of understanding relative contribution natural and anthropogenic factors might play role their decline. However, input configuration space high dimensional, running time-consuming, its noisy outputs change nonlinearly both mean variance. Getting enough runs effectively learn input–output dynamics requires nimble modeling strategy parallel evaluation. Recent advances heteroskedastic Gaussian process (HetGP) surrogate helps, but little known about how appropriately plan experiments for highly distributed simulation. We propose batch sequential design scheme, generalizing one-at-a-time variance-based active learning HetGP, as means keeping multicore cluster nodes fully engaged runs. Our acquisition carefully engineered favor selection replicates which boost statistical computational efficiency when training surrogates isolate signal from noise. Design are illustrated on range toy examples before embarking large-scale simulation campaign downstream high-fidelity sensitivity analysis.
منابع مشابه
GTApprox: surrogate modeling for industrial design
We describe GTApprox — a new tool for medium-scale surrogate modeling in industrial design. Compared to existing software, GTApprox brings several innovations: a few novel approximation algorithms, several advanced methods of automated model selection, novel options in the form of hints. We demonstrate the efficiency of GTApprox on a large collection of test problems. In addition, we describe s...
متن کاملA Fuzzy Hybrid Sequential Design Strategy for Global Surrogate Modeling of High-Dimensional Computer Experiments
Complex real-world systems can accurately be modeled by simulations. Evaluating high-fidelity simulators can take several days, making them impractical for use in optimization, design space exploration and analysis. Often, these simulators are approximated by relatively simple math known as a surrogate model. The data points to construct this model are simulator evaluations meaning the choice o...
متن کاملSequential Batch Design for Gaussian Processes Employing Marginalization †
Within the Bayesian framework, we utilize Gaussian processes for parametric studies of long running computer codes. Since the simulations are expensive, it is necessary to exploit the computational budget in the best possible manner. Employing the sum over variances —being indicators for the quality of the fit—as the utility function, we establish an optimized and automated sequential parameter...
متن کاملModeling and optimization of biological sequential batch reactors
This work deals with modeling and operation optimization of biological sequential batch reactors (SBR). The SBR is a fill-and-draw biological sludge system for wastewater treatment. In this system, wastewater is added to a single batch reactor, treated to remove undesirable components, and then, discharged. In this paper, a global model of a gas-solid-liquid SBR is presented to investigate and ...
متن کاملImplications for Future Survival of Delta Smelt from Four Climate Change Scenarios for the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta, California
Changes in the position of the low salinity zone, a habitat suitability index, turbidity, and water temperature modeled from four 100-year scenarios of climate change were evaluated for possible effects on delta smeltHypomesus transpacificus, which is endemic to the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta. The persistence of delta smelt in much of its current habitat into the next century appears uncertai...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: The Annals of Applied Statistics
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['1941-7330', '1932-6157']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1214/21-aoas1521